http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/0

It's often said that politics makes strange bedfellows. Leave it to Silvio Berlusconi, the scandal-ridden former premier of Italy, to make the platitude uncomfortably literal.
Thanks to an ongoing trial centering around whether or not Berlusconi paid for sex in 2010 with then-underage prostitute Karima El Mahroug, a Moroccan woman who attended Berlusconi's infamous "bunga-bunga" parties, new details are still emerging about the Bacchanalian festivals at the ex-leader's vacation home in Arcore, an Italian town outside of Milan. The latest salacious detail? That one of Berlusconi's attendees, a beautiful Dominican woman named Marysthell Polanco, dressed up as U.S. President Barack Obama to entertain guests at what Berlusconi has described as "elegant dinners," Reuters is reporting.
"I dressed up as Boccassini [a female prosecutor in the trial against Berlusconi] with a toga to make him laugh, and also as Obama," Polanco told the Italian court on Friday.
For his part, Berlusconi, who was recently spotted at Vladimir Putin's inauguration, denies all wrong-doing. We can only assume that he is longing for the days when his biggest gaffe with Obama was repeatedly describing him as "suntanned."
Berlusconi was forced to resign in November 2011 amid the scandal and Italy's economic woes, ending 17 years in Italian political life (incidentally, making his political career the same age as El Mahroug's was when Berlusconi allegedly paid her for intercourse).
Since then, Italy's technocratic new leader Mario Monti has steered the country through tough austerity cuts, maneuvered through a delicate European political situation as Greece's economy has unraveled, and discussed the importance of European growth with Obama at Camp David without even once making a racially charged remark. He is also, it should be noted, not part of an ongoing investigation over whether or not he paid for sex with a teenage girl.
http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/0

If you're waking up this morning and trying to catch up on the results of the Egyptian presidential election, you've got your work cut out for you. Preliminary vote counts first suggested that the country was heading to a run-off between Hosni Mubarak's former prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq, and Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi. That's the ultimate "out with the new, in with the old" scenario -- a reprise of the same battle that has been going on in Egyptian politics for generations, and the recipe for a serious moral dilemma among Egypt's self-styled revolutionaries.
But there's a twist to this story. Nasserist candidate Hamdeen Sabbahi is vying to replace Ahmed Shafiq in second place, according to the state-owned newspaper Ahram Online's preliminary results. Sabbahi gained steam in recent days as the only candidate who could credibly claim to represent leftist, non-Islamist voters while not being connected to the former regime. Islamist candidate Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, who has won the support of many pro-revolution voters, is playing the role of spoiler -- if a majority of his votes had gone to Sabbahi, he would have likely been able to edge out Shafiq.
Even though much about Egypt's election remains unsettled, there are a few lessons we can take away from the preliminary results.
The center didn't hold: Editors who wrote things like "[Amr] Moussa remains the front-runner in the presidential race" should have their pundit card revoked. The multiple polls that had the former foreign minister on top were wrong -- really, really wrong. Moussa is currently winning roughly 10 percent of votes, or about 20 points less than the Ahram survey projected.
It all goes back to the most important day of the election: April 14, when Egypt's election commission disqualified three of the most divisive front-runners: Mubarak-era intelligence chief Omar Suleiman, Salafist Hazem Abo Ismail, and Muslim Brotherhood leader Khairat al-Shater. The last big-name candidates -- Moussa and moderate Islamist Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh - lacked their rivals' sharp edges. In the lingo of American politics: They were uniters, not dividers.
But while the roster of candidates had changed, the Egyptian electorate -- which had elevated Suleiman, Abo Ismail, and Shater to the top of the race -- hadn't. And the five weeks between the disqualifications and the election proved just enough time for the Muslim Brotherhood's electoral machine to kick into gear for Morsi, and for Shafiq to undermine Moussa's support among Egyptians skeptical of Islamists and eager for a return to the stability of the Mubarak era.
Cold comfort for the United States and Israel: The one candidate who would not challenge the international partnerships established by the Mubarak regime is Ahmed Shafiq, who has said that the United States would be the first country he would visit if elected. But after a year of touting its rhetorical support for Egypt's revolutionaries, it would require some serious political jujitsu on the part of President Barack Obama to embrace a Shafiq -- particularly when the inevitable protests break out in Cairo.
If you think that's bad, a President Morsi or President Sabbahi could prove catastrophic for the United States and Israel. The challenges presented by the Muslim Brotherhood's Morsi, who has repeatedly called Israeli citizens "killers and vampires," are well known. But the presidency of Sabbahi, a long-time critic of the Egypt-Israel peace treaty, would be no better: He has pledged to not sell gas to Israel, and only refers to it as the "Zionist entity" in his campaign platform.
If anything, it's Sabbahi who's more likely to fracture the U.S.-Egyptian relationship. This is the candidate, after all, who in 2005 supported al Qaeda's attacks on American soldiers in Iraq. "When a weapon is pointed at the Americans [in Iraq], it is good," he said. "Any weapon that kills an American is good."
Islamist strongholds fell: Areas of Egypt that were supposed to be brimming with votes for Morsi and Aboul Fotouh defied pundits' expectations. Salafists, for example, dominated the parliamentary elections in Alexandria -- but were swept away by the secular leftist Sabbahi in the presidential race.
The same held true across the country. In Sharqiya governorate, which was supposedly Muslim Brotherhood territory, Shafiq came out with a 90,000-vote lead over Morsi. In Gharbiya governorate, another area dominated by the Brotherhood and the Salafist al-Nour party in the parliamentary elections, Shafiq crushed Morsi by nearly 200,000 votes.
Everyone had expected the Islamist movements to lose some steam compared to the parliamentary elections, but it's not quite clear how this came to pass. Some analysts have suggested that fraud may have played a role -- fears that will certainly become more pronounced if Shafiq makes the run-off.
Author:
Fandom: Pern
Characters: Sami (original character)
Rating: general
Length: 100
Summary: Sami has found a wild fire-lizard nest, but her interest is not in Impression.
Note: Written for
( Natural Science )
Author:
Fandom: none - original fic
Characters: none
Rating: general
Length: 100 words
Summary: The universe sings.
Note: Written for
( Infinite Universe )
http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/node/12654
Top news: The ballots from Egypt's two-day presidential election are still being counted, and official results aren't expected until Tuesday. But independent vote counts by entities such as the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian newspaper Al-Masry Al-Youm suggest that the Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi will square off against former Egyptian Air Force general and prime minister Ahmed Shafiq in a run-off scheduled for June.
If the preliminary results are accurate, the New York Times notes, the second round of voting will "pit the two most polarizing figures" in the race "against each other in a reversion to the decades-old power struggle between Egypt's secular-minded military elite and its longstanding Islamist opposition." Shafiq, who has been criticized for his ties to Hosni Mubarak's regime, surged in the final days of the campaign on a platform of law and order.
The early frontrunners in the race -- former Arab League chief Amr Moussa and former Brotherhood member Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh -- appear to have lost a great deal of support in the run-up to the election, while the leftist nationalist candidate Hamdeen Sabahi may have performed much better than expected. Egyptian election officials say half of the country's 50 million eligible voters cast ballots this week.
Human rights: The State Department released its 2011 report on global human rights, which criticized countries such as China and Iran but praised the progress made by states such as Myanmar and Tunisia. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman called the report "baseless, biased, and completely wrong."
Asia
- French President Francois Hollande made a surprise visit to Afghanistan shortly after announcing that all French troops would leave the country by the end of the year.
- A U.S. Senate committee withdrew $33 million in aid to Pakistan -- $1 million for each year that Shakil Afridi, a Pakistani doctor who helped the CIA track down Osama bin Laden, was sentenced to prison.
- The humanitarian organization Medair announced that four of its workers were kidnapped in northern Afghanistan.
Europe
- Trading in shares of Spain's Bankia has been suspended amid reports that the bank will ask the government for a bailout.
- Scottish nationalists launched a "Yes Scotland" campaign to persuade people to vote for independence during a referendum in 2014.
- A brawl erupted in Ukraine's parliament over a bill permitting the official use of the Russian language in some parts of the country.
Middle East
- Nuclear talks between Iran and world powers in Baghdad did not produce any breakthroughs, but both sides agreed to meet again in Moscow in June.
- The United States is reportedly developing a plan to vet members of the Free Syrian Army before Arab nations transfer arms to them.
- A bombing outside a police station in central Turkey killed a policeman.
Africa
- Clashes between farmers and herders along the border between Mali and Burkina Faso killed at least 25 people.
- Nigeria freed Chinese traders who had been accused of "economic scavenging."
- Lesotho is preparing for elections on Saturday.
Americas
- Police arrested nearly 700 people in Montreal and Quebec City who were protesting a planned increase in tuition fees.
- Mexican security forces raided a workshop producing fake Mexican military uniforms.
- Argentina prohibited a railway company from operating in Buenos Aires in response to a deadly train crash in February.
John Moore/Getty Images
- Actors and Movies: Emma Watson's "The Perks of Being a Wallflower" set for a September 14, 2012 release.
Video: First trailer for Tom Felton's supernatural thriller "The Apparition".
First Emma Watson "Perks of Being a Wallflower" video preview, "Bling Ring" promo.
Rupert Grint to costar with Alan Rickman in "CBGB" film biopic.
Rupert Grint confirmed to star in comedy "The Necessary Death of Charlie Countryman". - Communities:
femmefest has posted its reveals. - Hot Rec: Sweet Afton by Anonymous (Severus/Harry, PG-13)
- News: First look at box art cover for Harry Potter Wizard's Collection DVD/Blu-ray/UV set.
3-book "Hogwarts Library" Harry Potter supplementary box set out this fall.
Harry Potter Wizard's Collection website releases new film concept art, interview.
http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/node/12643
Top news: Egyptians are queuing up at polling stations for a second straight day in the country's first free presidential elections, though the BBC reports that turnout so far today does not appear to be as high as it was on Wednesday. The Egyptian authorities have declared Thursday a holiday to allow government workers to vote.
Voting has generally gone smoothly, though there have been reports of protesters throwing shoes at candidate Ahmed Shafik and a group of female voters being blocked from a polling station because they were wearing full face veils.
A runoff is scheduled for June if none of the 13 candidates secures a majority of the votes, and preliminary results are expected to be released over the weekend.
Pakistan: The sentencing of a Pakistani doctor to 33 years in prison on Wednesday for helping the CIA find Osama bin Laden has only further widened the rift between Islamabad and Washington. Some U.S. senators threatened to withhold aid to Pakistan, while a Pakistani foreign ministry spokesman said the two countries "need to respect each other's legal processes."
Middle East
- In its second day of nuclear talks with world powers in Baghdad, Iran suggested that it would not stop enriching uranium unless the international community scaled back sanctions against Tehran.
- Syria's oil minister said sanctions have cost the country's economy $4 billion.
- A new U.N. report blamed the Syrian army for committing "most of the serious human rights violations in the country" since March.
Europe
- European officials failed to reach any breakthroughs during a summit meeting in Brussels on the debt crisis, as reports emerged about contingency planning for a Greek exit from the eurozone.
- Russia tested an intercontinental ballistic missile to counter the planned American missile defense system in Europe.
- During a meeting in Geneva this week, the World Health Organization will vote on whether to declare polio eradication an "emergency for public health."
Asia
- A U.S. drone strike killed suspected militants in northwestern Pakistan for the second day in a row.
- The brother of Chinese dissident Chen Guangcheng fled his village to meet with lawyers in Beijing.
- Protests against power cuts are spreading in Myanmar.
Americas
- Mexico extradited the drug lord Sergio Villarreal to the United States.
- Hewlett-Packard announced plans to cut 27,000 jobs.
- Forensic experts in Argentina identified the remains of a victim of the country's "dirty war" whose body washed ashore in Uruguay in 1976.
Africa
- The trial of an artist who painted an explicit portrait of South African President Jacob Zuma is underway in Johannesburg.
- Mali's interim leader traveled to France for medical treatment after he was assaulted by protesters.
- The incoming chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court dismissed the notion that the ICC is biased against Africa.
STR/AFP/Getty Images
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